Forecast tools

Weather Models

Model viewer links and a full reference catalog of mesoscale, global deterministic, ensemble, and seasonal forecast models from NOAA, ECMWF, UK Met, DWD, JMA, KMA, BoM, and others.

Quick access

Model Viewers

These sites aggregate output from multiple centers and offer fast side-by-side comparisons for operational analysis.

Reference

Model Catalog

Operational forecast models organized by scale. Forecast range and update frequency reflect standard operational configurations as of 2025–2026.

HRRR is NOAA's flagship convection-allowing model, assimilating radar reflectivity every 15 minutes for the most up-to-date short-range detail. NAM-NEST extends that convection-allowing coverage to 84 hours, while RAP provides hourly updates as a hybrid parent for aviation and mesoanalysis use. RRFSv1 is NOAA's next-generation FV3-based replacement for all three — currently experimental, targeting a unified convection-allowing architecture by the late 2020s.

Mesoscale & High-Resolution

Fine-scale convection-allowing models with short forecast windows. Best for day 0–3 details at the local level.

CenterNOAA/ESRL
Resolution3 km
Forecast Range18 hrs (48 hrs at 00Z/12Z)
UpdatesEvery hour
RAPOperational
Rapid Refresh
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution13 km
Forecast Range21 hrs
UpdatesEvery hour
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution12 km CONUS / 3 km nest
Forecast Range84 hrs
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
ICON-D2Operational
ICON-D2
CenterDWD
Resolution2.2 km
Forecast Range48 hrs
Updates8× daily
AROMEOperational
AROME
CenterMétéo-France
Resolution1.3 km
Forecast Range48 hrs
Updates8× daily
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution2.5 km
Forecast Range48 hrs
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution10 km
Forecast Range84 hrs
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~3 km
Forecast Range60 hrs
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)

WAVEWATCH III is NOAA's primary operational wave model, with regional nests covering U.S. coastal zones and the Great Lakes down to ~4 km. ECMWF WAM is fully coupled to the IFS atmospheric model and generally leads on open-ocean significant wave height skill at medium range. For probabilistic wave guidance beyond day 3, GEFS-Wave (31 members) provides spread envelopes; OPC analyses add synoptic marine warnings and sea-state products for the North Atlantic and Pacific.

Marine & Wave

Spectral ocean wave and coupled marine forecast models. Provide significant wave height, peak period, and swell direction for coastal, Great Lakes, and open-ocean forecasting.

WW3Operational
WAVEWATCH III
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~16 km (global) / ~4 km (regional)
Forecast Range7 days
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution2.5 km
Forecast Range84 hrs
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution~25 km
Forecast Range7 days
Updates2× daily (00Z/12Z)
WAMOperational
ECMWF WAM
CenterECMWF
Resolution~14 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates2× daily (00Z/12Z)
GFS-WaveOperational
GFS Wave
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~16 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates4× daily
GEFS-WaveOperational
NWW3 Ensemble
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~25 km / 31 members
Forecast Range16 days
Updates4× daily
CenterNOAA/OPC
ResolutionSynoptic
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily

HAFS-A and HAFS-B are NOAA's current operational hurricane models, replacing HWRF in 2023. TVCN (track consensus) and IVCN (intensity consensus) are the blend products NHC forecasters rely on most — consistently outperforming any single model in annual NHC verification.

EMX (ECMWF) has ranked as the top-performing individual track model in multiple recent NHC annual verification reports, with the lowest mean track errors at days 3–5 across the Atlantic basin. It serves as an essential cross-check against the TVCN consensus and is frequently referenced in NHC forecast discussions when the ECMWF diverges from the GFS.

SHIPS-RII defines rapid intensification as a wind speed increase of ≥35 kt in 24 hours — roughly one Saffir-Simpson category. The guidance outputs a probability (0–100%) for each forecast cycle; NHC forecasters treat values above ~40–50% as an elevated RI signal. Statistical guidance from SHIPS and SHIPS-RII remains the primary tool for RI probability assessment alongside dynamical model intensity spreads.

Tropical & Hurricane

Dedicated tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast models, statistical guidance schemes, and consensus products used by NHC forecasters across the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.

CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~3 km (innermost nest)
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~3 km (innermost nest)
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~3 km (innermost nest)
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~3 km (innermost nest)
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily
CenterNOAA/CSU
ResolutionStatistical / point forecast
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily
CenterNOAA/CSU
ResolutionStatistical / probabilistic
Forecast Range24–48 hrs
Updates4× daily
CenterNOAA/NHC
ResolutionStatistical / point forecast
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily
TVCNOperational
NHC Track Consensus
CenterNOAA/NHC
ResolutionConsensus blend
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily
IVCNOperational
NHC Intensity Consensus
CenterNOAA/NHC
ResolutionConsensus blend
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily
AVNOOperational
GFS Tropical Tracker
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~13 km
Forecast Range7 days
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
AEMNOperational
GEFS Tropical Ensemble
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~25 km / 31 members
Forecast Range16 days
Updates4× daily
EMXOperational
ECMWF Tropical Track
CenterECMWF
Resolution~9 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates2× daily (00Z/12Z)
CenterECMWF
Resolution~18 km / 51 members
Forecast Range15 days
Updates2× daily (00Z/12Z)
UKXOperational
UKMET Tropical Track
CenterUK Met Office
Resolution~10 km
Forecast Range7 days
Updates4× daily
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution~25 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates4× daily
CenterNRL / JTWC
ResolutionStatistical / point forecast
Forecast Range5 days
Updates4× daily

ECMWF HRES has consistently ranked as the world's most accurate deterministic global model over the past decade, with particular strength on 4–7 day 500 hPa height anomaly forecasts. GFS is the U.S. primary and the most accessible — full-resolution output is freely available with no subscription. ICON (DWD) and UM (UK Met) are regularly competitive in mid-latitude verification; GEM (ECCC) is the Canadian primary and a key contributor to NHC tropical track consensus products.

Global Deterministic

Single-solution global models producing one best-guess forecast. Backbone of operational weather prediction worldwide.

GFSOperational
Global Forecast System
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~13 km
Forecast Range16 days
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
ECMWF HRESOperational
IFS High-Resolution
CenterECMWF
Resolution~9 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates2× daily (00Z/12Z)
UMOperational
Unified Model
CenterUK Met Office
Resolution~10 km
Forecast Range7 days
Updates4× daily
ICONOperational
ICON Global
CenterDWD (Germany)
Resolution~13 km
Forecast Range7.5 days
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
ARPEGEOperational
ARPEGE
CenterMétéo-France
Resolution~7.5 km (variable)
Forecast Range4 days
Updates4× daily
JMA GSMOperational
GSM
CenterJMA (Japan)
Resolution~20 km
Forecast Range11 days
Updates4× daily
KMA UMOperational
UM (KMA)
CenterKMA (South Korea)
Resolution~17 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates4× daily
ACCESS-GOperational
ACCESS-G
CenterBoM (Australia)
Resolution~25 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates4× daily
GEMOperational
GEM
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution~25 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates4× daily
CMA GFSOperational
GRAPES-GFS
CenterCMA (China)
Resolution~25 km
Forecast Range10 days
Updates4× daily

ECMWF ENS (51 members, 15 days) is the gold-standard medium-range ensemble — EFI and Shift of Tails products extend meaningful probabilistic guidance to the full 15-day window. GEFS (31 members, 16 days) is NOAA's operational equivalent and the free-access backbone of all U.S. probabilistic outlooks beyond day 3. For extended range, ECMWF EPS runs to 46 days and GEPS (ECCC, 21 members) to 16 days — both widely used for week 2–3 anomaly pattern assessment.

Global Ensembles

Multiple perturbed model runs quantifying forecast uncertainty. Essential for probabilistic outlooks beyond day 5.

CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~25 km / 31 members
Forecast Range16 days
Updates4× daily
ECMWF ENSOperational
ENS (Medium-Range)
CenterECMWF
Resolution~18 km / 51 members
Forecast Range15 days
Updates2× daily (00Z/12Z)
ECMWF EPSOperational
Extended-Range EPS
CenterECMWF
Resolution~36 km / 51 members
Forecast Range46 days
Updates2× daily
MOGREPS-GOperational
MOGREPS-G
CenterUK Met Office
Resolution~33 km / 18 members
Forecast Range7 days
Updates4× daily
ICON-EPSOperational
ICON-EPS
CenterDWD
Resolution~40 km / 40 members
Forecast Range7.5 days
Updates4× daily
JMA EPSOperational
EPS
CenterJMA
Resolution~40 km / 51 members
Forecast Range11 days
Updates2× daily
GEPSOperational
GEPS
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution~39 km / 21 members
Forecast Range16 days
Updates4× daily
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution~10 km / 20 members
Forecast Range3 days
Updates4× daily (00/06/12/18Z)
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~16 km / 21 members
Forecast Range87 hrs
Updates2× daily (03Z/15Z)

AIFS is ECMWF's operational AI model — running to 15 days at ~28 km in minutes rather than hours, it matches HRES on many standard benchmark metrics and is the first AI system fully integrated into an operational NWP center. AIFS-ENS extends this to a 50-member ensemble at a fraction of the compute cost of the conventional ENS.

GraphCast (Google DeepMind) and Pangu-Weather (Huawei) were among the first neural models to outperform HRES on majority test metrics, establishing the research benchmark the field has since built on. GenCast and SEEDS represent the diffusion-based probabilistic wave — generating ensemble-quality spread at near-zero marginal cost per additional member.

NOAA's AIGFS, AIGEFS, and AIEFS are the agency's in-development AI successors to GFS, GEFS, and sub-seasonal guidance respectively — all currently experimental with no confirmed operational transition date.

AI & Machine Learning

Neural network and deep learning forecast models trained on reanalysis data. Rapidly maturing category with several systems matching or exceeding traditional NWP accuracy at medium range.

AIFSOperational
AIFS (Operational)
CenterECMWF
Resolution~28 km
Forecast Range15 days
Updates2× daily
AIFS-ENSOperational
AIFS Ensemble
CenterECMWF
Resolution~28 km / 50 members
Forecast Range15 days
Updates2× daily
GraphCastResearch
GraphCast
CenterGoogle DeepMind
Resolution~28 km
Forecast Range10 days
UpdatesExperimental
PanguResearch
Pangu-Weather
CenterHuawei Noah's Ark Lab
Resolution~28 km
Forecast Range7 days
UpdatesResearch
FCNv2Research
FourCastNet v2
CenterNVIDIA/ECMWF
Resolution~28 km
Forecast Range10 days
UpdatesResearch
GenCastResearch
GenCast
CenterGoogle DeepMind
Resolution~28 km / 50 members
Forecast Range15 days
UpdatesResearch
AuroraResearch
Aurora
CenterMicrosoft Research
Resolution~28 km
Forecast Range10 days
UpdatesResearch
NeuralGCMResearch
NeuralGCM
CenterGoogle Research
Resolution~140 km
Forecast Range15 days
UpdatesResearch
StormerResearch
Stormer
CenterMIT / Princeton
Resolution~28 km
Forecast Range10 days
UpdatesResearch
SEEDSResearch
SEEDS
CenterGoogle Research
Resolution~28 km / ensemble
Forecast Range15 days
UpdatesResearch
Prithvi WxCResearch
Prithvi WxC
CenterIBM / NASA
Resolution~111 km
Forecast Range10 days
UpdatesResearch
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~13 km
Forecast Range16 days
UpdatesExperimental
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~25 km / 30+ members
Forecast Range16 days
UpdatesExperimental
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~50 km / 30 members
Forecast Range35 days
UpdatesExperimental
ClimaXResearch
ClimaX
CenterMicrosoft Research
Resolution~111 km
Forecast Range10 days
UpdatesResearch
ExcartaResearch
Excarta (Wx-LLM)
CenterExcarta
Resolution~28 km
Forecast Range10 days
UpdatesResearch

CFSv2 is NOAA's current operational seasonal backbone, underpinning all CPC seasonal outlooks since 2011. SFSv1 is its experimental successor under active development — improved ocean–atmosphere coupling and land surface physics, but not yet in operations.

Sub-seasonal & Seasonal

Longer-range probabilistic models used for climate outlooks, seasonal temperature/precipitation anomaly forecasts, and hurricane season predictions.

CFSv2Operational
Climate Forecast System v2
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~100 km / 40+ members
Forecast Range9 months
Updates4× daily (continuous cycling)
SEAS5Operational
SEAS5
CenterECMWF
Resolution~36 km / 51 members
Forecast Range7 months
UpdatesMonthly (1st of month)
ECMWF S2SOperational
S2S Database
CenterECMWF
Resolution~18 km / 51 members
Forecast Range47 days
Updates2× weekly
GloSea6Operational
GloSea6
CenterUK Met Office
Resolution~60 km / 42–60 members
Forecast Range7 months
UpdatesWeekly lagged ensemble
JMA CPS3Operational
CPS3
CenterJMA
Resolution~100 km / 10–51 members
Forecast Range7 months
UpdatesMonthly
ACCESS-S2Operational
ACCESS-S2
CenterBoM
Resolution~250 km / 33 members
Forecast Range9 months
UpdatesMonthly
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~100 km / 80 members
Forecast Range35 days
UpdatesDaily (00Z)
CenterNOAA + partners
Resolution~100 km / 100+ members
Forecast Range12 months
UpdatesMonthly (1st of month)
CenterEnvironment Canada
Resolution~100 km / 20 members
Forecast Range12 months
UpdatesMonthly (1st of month)
CenterNOAA/NCEP
Resolution~50 km / 40+ members
Forecast Range12 months
UpdatesExperimental

Model specifications reflect standard operational configurations as documented by each center. Actual availability may vary. Resolution figures are approximate for the primary domain. Specifications last reviewed January 2026.

Links re-audited July 2026 — ECMWF deep links updated (HRES/ENS → 10-day-forecast, EPS → long-range, SEAS5 → seasonal-forecasts, WAM → ocean-wave-forecasts)